A 53-year-old Soviet-era spacecraft, Kosmos 482, is expected to crash back to Earth between May 9 and May 11, 2025, after being stuck in orbit for over half a century. Launched in 1972 as part of a mission to Venus, the spacecraft failed to escape Earth’s gravity and separated into four pieces.
The lander probe, a spherical object about 1 meter wide and weighing nearly 500 kilograms, was built to withstand the extreme heat and pressure of Venus’ atmosphere. Its robust heat shield and durable structure may allow it to survive the uncontrolled descent through Earth’s atmosphere.
However, the parachute system likely degraded after 50 years in space, making a controlled landing unlikely.
The spacecraft’s projected flight path could see it land anywhere between 51.7° north and south latitude, covering most of the inhabited world, including:
– Africa: Entire continent
– Americas: Most of North and South America
– Europe: Southern and mid-latitude regions
– Asia: Significant portions
– Australia: Entire continent
According to experts, the risk to people on the ground is low. Stijn Lemmens, Senior Space Debris Mitigation Analyst at the European Space Agency, compares the likelihood of being impacted by the spacecraft to winning the lottery. Most objects burn up in the atmosphere before reaching the ground, and oceans cover 70% of the planet’s surface, reducing the likelihood of significant damage.
International space agencies are closely tracking Kosmos 482’s re-entry. Experts emphasize the importance of designing future spacecraft to safely de-orbit, allowing for precise predictions of landing locations and reducing the risk of debris impacting populated areas.
