The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has stated that the cost of petrol could significantly decrease—potentially falling below N400 per litre—following the sharp decline in crude oil prices on the global market.
The association believes that if crude oil drops to around $50 per barrel, the pump price of petrol should not exceed N350 per litre.
However, CORAN warned that local petrol prices may keep rising, regardless of lower international oil prices and reduced landing costs, if the federal government fails to sustain the naira-for-crude arrangement.
Global oil prices have recently taken a hit, with Brent crude dropping to $65 per barrel—the lowest level since 2021. The drop is attributed to a mix of factors, including new tariffs on imports imposed by the United States and an unexpected decision by OPEC+ to boost oil production.
The price had previously seen a minor increase when U.S. President Donald Trump introduced tariffs on countries buying oil from Venezuela, but that gain quickly reversed.
Reports from oilprice.com indicate that the combination of Trump’s trade policies, China’s countermeasures, and OPEC+’s decision to increase output has pushed down global crude prices by $10 per barrel.
As a result, West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 7.4 percent to close at $61.99 per barrel.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, responded to the U.S. with additional tariffs of 34 percent on American goods starting April 10, escalating trade tensions and raising fears of a potential global economic downturn.
At the same time, OPEC and its allies are moving forward with plans to increase oil supply, aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May—well above the previously planned 135,000 barrels.
In Nigeria, despite a slight drop in the landing cost of petrol from N885 to N865 per litre, the ex-depot price increased from N860 to N900 in Lagos, indicating that local prices are not yet reflecting the shift in international oil markets.
This was confirmed in a bulletin released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.
Eche Idoko, CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, expressed concern about this development, noting that while global crude prices are declining, fuel prices in Nigeria are on the rise, largely due to the naira’s continued depreciation.
He highlighted the importance of the naira-for-crude deal, describing it as a strategy to enhance energy stability and support the local currency.
Idoko also criticized certain stakeholders in the fuel supply chain, accusing them of resisting local refining efforts and continuing to push for the importation of substandard petroleum products.
He noted that some intermediaries are against the naira-for-crude deal because it undermines their financial interests.
According to him, before the policy was suspended, petrol prices were heading toward N700 per litre, and the initiative had helped curb that surge.